Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.029113 0.033159 0.037590 0.042807 0.048787 0.055434 0.063393
2025-01-12 0.022247 0.027589 0.033977 0.042197 0.052524 0.065103 0.081648
2025-01-19 0.018043 0.023674 0.030812 0.040560 0.053586 0.070471 0.094155
2025-01-26 0.016258 0.022352 0.030459 0.042094 0.058467 0.080832 0.113958
2025-02-02 0.014888 0.021309 0.030218 0.043567 0.063219 0.091323 0.134994
2025-02-09 0.013777 0.020439 0.030034 0.044980 0.067892 0.102047 0.157479
2025-02-16 0.012414 0.019014 0.028844 0.044694 0.069896 0.108891 0.174720
2025-02-23 0.011396 0.017980 0.028093 0.044934 0.072638 0.117030 0.194796
2025-03-02 0.010343 0.016768 0.026921 0.044338 0.073904 0.122840 0.211566
2025-03-09 0.009727 0.016187 0.026680 0.045202 0.077620 0.132988 0.236804
2025-03-16 0.008937 0.015233 0.025721 0.044733 0.078958 0.139146 0.255574
2025-03-23 0.008552 0.014927 0.025814 0.046074 0.083584 0.151494 0.287025
2025-03-30 0.007715 0.013769 0.024352 0.044540 0.082916 0.154331 0.301134
2025-04-06 0.007088 0.012931 0.023383 0.043814 0.083681 0.159923 0.321334
2025-04-13 0.006396 0.011908 0.021979 0.042117 0.082382 0.161365 0.333247
2025-04-20 0.006207 0.011806 0.022273 0.043712 0.087705 0.176379 0.375123
2025-04-27 0.006022 0.011693 0.022528 0.045245 0.093046 0.191972 0.420152
2025-05-04 0.005840 0.011567 0.022745 0.046714 0.098396 0.208130 0.468427
2025-05-11 0.005480 0.011053 0.022143 0.046417 0.099942 0.216296 0.499506
2025-05-18 0.005206 0.010691 0.021814 0.046666 0.102692 0.227368 0.538730
2025-05-25 0.004871 0.010173 0.021118 0.046046 0.103429 0.233979 0.568028
2025-06-01 0.004700 0.009989 0.021109 0.046946 0.107721 0.249198 0.620486
2025-06-08 0.004422 0.009549 0.020513 0.046458 0.108719 0.256758 0.654483